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郝吉明院士:我国大气污染防治的五年

[2018-6-11] 点击:

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GEWEIPENGYOU、GEWEITONGSHI,WOJIDAJIAJIANDANHUIGUYIXIAWOGUODAQIFANGZHIZHEIWUNIAN,YEJIUSHISHUODAQISHITIAOBANBUYILAIDEQINGKUANG。WOXIANGFENWUGEFANGMIANLAIJIDAJIAHUIBAO。

郝吉明院士:我国大气污染防治的五年

一、大气十条的颁布,为什么颁布大气十条?

ZHONGGUOGONGCHENGYUANHEGUOJIAHUANBAOZONGJUHOULAIGAIMINGWEIHUANJINGBAOHUBU,GONGTONGWANCHENGZHONGGUOHUANJINGBAOHUHONGGUANZHANLVEYANJIU。ZAINEIGEZHANLVEYANJIUDANGZHONGYOUYIBUFENNEIRONGSHIZHONGGUODAQIHUANJINGBAOHUDEZHANLVEMUBIAO,ZHANLVEYANJIU。DANGSHIMUBIAODAO2050NIANZHONGGUOJIBENSHIXIANSHIJIEWEISHENGZUZHIHUANJINGKONGQIZHILIANGNONGDUDEZHIDAOZHI。ZHEISHIYIGEZHANLVEXINGMUBIAO。DANGSHIZHIDINGMUBIAODESHIHOUHENDUORENHUAIYI,DAO2050NIANNENGBUNENGSHIXIANZHEIGEMUBIAO?YEYOURENRENWEIWOTIZHEIGEMUBIAOBIJIAOBAOSHOU,ZHONGGUOSHIXIANSHIJIEWEISHENGZUZHIDEZHIDAOZHIGENBENBUXUYAO40NIAN,2007NIANHE2009NIANTICHULAIDE,BUTONGYIJIANTAOLUNJIEGUOJIALEJIBENLIANGGEZI,JIBENSHIXIANZONGMUBIAO。DANGSHIDUIDAQIWURANXINGSHIDEPANDUAN,DIYITIAODAQIWURANXINGSHIFEICHANGYANJUN,CUNZAIZHEFASHENGDAQIYANZHONGWURANSHIJIANDEYINYOU,DANGSHIYONGYINYOUZHEIGECI,MEIYOUSHUOFASHENG。2013NIANSHIJISHANGZHONGGUOFASHENGLEYANZHONGDEDAQIWURANSHIJIAN。

二、中国大气污染减排难度和压力很大。

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三、基本科学共识。通过五年我们达到基本的科学共识,在大气污染控制上。有几条:

一、我们大气污染的来源,为什么形成重污染?重污染的原因进一步探明京津冀的秋冬季大气重污染的来源,燃煤工业生产、机动车等、是京津冀及其周边秋冬季污染主要来源,其中燃煤排放仍然是首要来源,一次排放对采暖期PM2.5贡献率达到20%到30%,对有机碳的贡献显著层家,排放二氧化硫、氮氧化物转化为二次颗粒物,形成硫酸盐、硝酸盐,总体来讲燃煤排放对秋冬季污染工作,PM2.5的贡献率达到30%到50%,中国控制燃煤污染仍然是排在第一位的任务。

第二个从宏观和纵观来看,宏观来看大气污染原因就是我们排放强度大,超过了环境承载力。我们解读重污染老解读天气形势不利,很少解读我们排放量太大,其实我们排放量太大才是主导的,排放量超过了环境承载力,人的作用就明确了。

ZONGGUANLAIKANDUIZHONGWURANFENXIRUHEXINGCHENGDE,SANGEWENTI,YIGESHIBENDIJILEI,DIERGEQUYUCHUANSHU,JIASHANGERCIWURANWUDEZHUANHUA。BENDIJILEIBIJIAOQINGCHU,BEIJINGQIANWANRENKOUDECHENGSHI,QUNUANPAIFANG。YOULIQIXIANGTIAOJIANBABEIJINGWURANJICHUIZOULE,BEIJINGJIUHAOLE,NIPAIFANGTAIDAYEYAOXIAOJIAN。DIERGEQUYUCHUANSHU,BAOKUOJINGJINJIDEZHOUBIANDIQU,BAOKUOSHANDONG、HENANDOUSHIDUIBEIJINGYOUHENDADEYINGXIANG。YINWEIYOUTAIXINGSHANMAI、YANXINGSHANMAI,LIANGGESHANMAIDIXINGTIAOJIANXIANGDANGYUBAWURANLONGZAIYIKUAI。DISANGEERCIZHUANHUA,KELIWUZHUANHUAYIBUFEN,HEYUANSHIPAIDEKELIWULIANGBUFEN,ZONGGUANXINGCHENGYUANYINTICHUSANTIAO。

第三重污染期间PM2.5的组分和成因变化明显。污染过去硫酸盐、二氧化硫是主要矛盾,现在硝酸盐已经成为重污染期间最重要的二次组分,要改善颗粒物的污染,控制硝酸盐是首当其冲。前两天北京温度达到40度,臭氧浓度到200多,氮氧化物是重要的控制对象。

第四条颗粒物污染和不利气象条件之间相互作用有了进一步的认识。气象条例不利,污染之后对气象有反馈作用,使不利作用更加剧,这个认识上有了新的体嘎。

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还有产业结构调整,还有一批重大减排工程。国家重大减排工程在这里起了重要作用。大气十条实施以来,大气污染领域实现了一系列的历史性变革,解决了许多长期想解决而没有解决的问题,这是总体的措施。

YOUYUZHEIXIECUOSHIDEZUOYONG,QUANGUODEWURANWUJIANPAIQUDELEXIANZHUXIAOGUO,ERYANGHUALIU、DANYANGHUAWU、PM2.5DEYICIPAIFANGZHEIXIENIANXIANZHUJIANSHAO,JIANSHAOERYANGHUALIU59%,DANYANGHUAWUJIANSHAO20%,XIAOSUANYANCHENGWEIKELIWUDANGZHONGZHUYAOCHENGFEN,WEISHENME?ERYANGHUALIUJIANPAIFUDUDA,DANYANGHUAWUJIANPAIFUDUBUGOU,SUOYIXIAOSUANYANTUXIANLE,SUOYIJIADADANYANGHUAWUJIANPAILIDUSHIKEBURONGHUANDE。

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QIUDONGJIDUISANMEIRANSHAO、SANLUANWUQIYEJINXINGLEZHENGZHI,“SHUANGSAN”ZHILIYEQUDELEXIANZHUCHENGXIAO。2017NIANBI2016NIANXIANZHUXIAJIANG,SANMEIQINGJIEHUATIDAIHEYANMEICHULI。

大家非常关心从去年四月份启动大气重污染成因与治理的集中攻关专项。在环境保护部强有力的组织下,成立了1500名的科学专家组,往下推动,这是组织的优势力量。

第二个建立“一市一策”的跟踪计划,选择2+26个城市在京津冀,每一个城市成立一个专家团队,1+1对应。解决了地方有想法没有办法的瓶颈。

第三个团队结成很多科研计划的成果用到2+26个城市。国家的各项成果包括科技部的大气重点专项,那个大气重点专项的投资是24.76亿,那个项目治理大气上科技投资是历年来最高的一个五年计划。另外还有科技基金委,基金委专门列了联合重大治理计划。

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对挑战和建议我提几条,打赢蓝天保卫战关键性挑战在哪里?第一个我们必须清醒的认识PM2.5的防治刚刚走出第一步,依然任重道远。世界卫生组织指导值是10微克立方米,北京去年取得很大成绩是58微克,58和10之间有多远这一块。第二个我们治理的渠道成效总是先易后难,随着治理进程越来越难,可以这么讲,治理二氧化硫相对比较容易,治理氮氧化物就难,治理VOCs更难,二氧化硫减少了,氮氧化物减少了,PM2.5一次减少了,我没有给VOCs,为什么?VOCs是增加的态势,不是减少的态势。空气质量管理进入了PM2.5和臭氧协同防治的深水区。

第二个产业能源和交通结构的调整,为大气污染消减潜力有待释放。调整产业结构、能源结构和交通结构是长期系统的工程,还是需要时间。

另外坚持科技引领,继续提升科技服务能力,构建精细化的大气环境管理治理体系,这还需要花更大力气。实际上科技引领,在科技上花更大投入,取得更多的进展,这是我们持续支撑我们科技治霾的必然条件。

CONGZHEILIWOJILEYIGEYINGGUOLIZI,LUNDUNYANWUSHIJIANZHIHAOLE,TAMENHUALE50NIANZHIHAODE,ZHEISHITAMEN50NIANLIANGTIAOXIAN,DIYITIAOSHIERYANGHUALIU,DIERGESHIYANCHEN,ZHEISHI1950NIANDAO2000NIAN。YINGGUOXIANZAIZHENGTIZHILIANGZENMEYANG,FASHENGLEZHUANHUA,RANMEIWURANBIANCHENGLEJIDONGCHEWURAN,ZAIYINGGUODALUNDUNYOU63%DEKELIWULAIZIYUDIMIANJIAOTONGYUAN,QITAHAIYOUYIXIEJIAOTONGYUAN,HAIYOUYIXIEYIDONGYUAN。63%DEDIMIANJIAOTONGYUANYOUJIEXIGUOQULE,YEJIUSHILUNDUNDEWURANYIJINGCONGRANMEIXINGZHUANWEIJIDONGCHEKONGZHIXING。

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大伦敦地区总管总结出的五条经验。一、改善空气质量是可能的,伦敦经验证明是可能的。我们北京经验也证明可能的。二、伦敦仍然面临严重的挑战。这条我们要记住,不要认为我们没有挑战了,我们也有更严重的挑战。三、在伦敦地区建立超低排放的区域是必要的。北京老说要建立超低排放区,还一直没有建。四、消减和应对是双重整治。五、国家之间、城市之间需要一起努力,也就是我们联防联控。

第一条巩固深化大气污染防治的成果。有些指标有标志性,比如说“京60”有标志性的,人人都说难达到,市长说提脑袋来见,这个指标达不到,是标志性的,很多措施出来了,所以就引领了,这是一个。

再一个扩大治理区域,京津冀是严重的,有些地区比较严重,京津冀、长三角、珠三角之外,我们建议加上新三区,川渝地区、汾渭平原、长江中央城市群。三个地区符合中央长江经济带战略上的环境保护,长江经济带有水污染防治,也有大气防治做一些工作。

另外如何优化能源、产业和交通结构调整,尤其是交通结构调整,如何优化铁路、公路、水运相结合的运输体系,不要把运输都转到公路上来,转到公路上来导致柴油车污染加重。另外建议推动国家减排工程,我们国家减排工程通过二氧化硫国家十一五列出了这个目标,十二五是氮氧化物减排,十三五今后要做什么减排工程。第一柴油车,启动清洁柴油车行动计划。李克强政府工作报告特别做柴油车、机动车污染整治的专项活动。第二非电行业加强污染控制。李克强总理在政府工作报告提到钢铁行业达标排放和超低排放的问题。第三条搞VOCs减排的国家行动,这三个国家行动是需要的。

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